October 31, 2006
I'm sorry, but you are about to be hit by even more ramblings. All names provided are fictional. The events aren't.
I was out at the body shop Monday. The body shop? Well, the thing is, one of my farmer friends lets another fellow use part of his farm shop to do auto body work. This body man is extremely good at auto body work, but he isn't very good at business management. He used to run his own auto body business, with a real location, real employees, the works. He does great work. But he uses the farmer's farm shop to do his auto body work now, because he just can't quite manage to maintain his own establishment. You probably won't be too surprised to learn that this is not entirely legal. There are various regulations nowadays that control how one may do auto body work. And the existing arrangement at "the body shop" violates most of them. But the thing is, he does great work. No one involved cares whether the official rules are being obeyed or not. I see this a sign of a healthy society in which people care more about what works and less about how things are supposed to work.
So anyway, I was out at the body shop. I try to get there at least once per week to catch up on the news and gossip, and I hadn't been for a while. It was time. Besides, they had been about out of V.O., and I had bought some, along with a can of mixed nuts. So it was time to get out there.
"Daniel" (not his real name) was there. Daniel has made a fortune lately with his almond orchard. Among his investments, he has purchased some rental housing in a nearby city. Let me tell you something: the cash (free market) economy is a lot bigger than you can imagine. Daniel was talking about all the cash money (you know - actual Federal Reserve Notes) he gets as rent payments. He took out a big wad of notes from his pocket, including a lot of $100 notes.
So the discussion immediately veered into exactly how one should handle large cash receipts. Of course, all income should be accounted for, and the applicable taxes should be paid. Right. OK, stop laughing. Really, what to do with all that cash? Well, much of it is deposited, to offset legitimate business expenses, and show a modest profit on the rental property. But the rest? Well, it can be spent on day-to-day cash expenses like groceries, V.O., and gambling.
"Jim" (not his real name) mentioned that he had recently received some cash. Now, I've known Jim for about 47 years, but I never really knew much about his opinions on anything more complicated than the best way to plant cotton or drink beer. Jim said he had purchased some gold and silver coins, and recommended that Daniel do the same.
The general discussion then centered on the value of having a nice stash of gold and silver coins for, you know, just in case. Just in case of what? Just in case TSHTF. OK, you do know what that means, right? No? Well, let's just say, in case things go very, very badly, all of a sudden. Like if some nuclear weapons are detonated in the United States. Or the bird flu goes critical, and both the society and the economy crash. Or some other such disaster strikes.
Now, I have long subscribed to the idea that having a modest stash of gold and silver coins is a Good Idea - just in case TSHTF. And I have a few friends who share this opinion. But still, it's a rather unconventional idea, isn't it? I mean, very few people even think about such things, right? You don't, do you? Come on; be honest. You don't. You don't have gold and silver coins, just in case, do you?
So there I was, out drinking and gossiping with my fellow farmers and agri-business people (the auto body man was elsewhere), and there was all this talk about cash, gold and silver, and societal collapse. These people, whom I have known for longer than I care to think about, were tuned into the same sort of "what if" concerns that I am. I really had no idea that they might ever consider such things. I had always assumed that their concerns were restricted to such weighty matters as the right caliber to shoot deers with, the advantages of John Deere tractors as compared to Case IH tractors, and whether Italian sausage is as good as linguica (Portuguese sausage). It's not, as anyone who has eaten both certainly knows.
One of the concerns about restarting trade and commerce after TSHTF is: how to do it using gold and silver, when so few people have any, and so many people have no idea of the value of having any? Well, I now think it's a safe bet that a lot more people do have some, and lot more people do have some idea about the values involved, and a lot more people have given the question serious thought; certainly more than I had previously supposed to be the case. What a strange revelation! Or it could be that a completely untypical small sample of farmers and agri-business people have thought about such matters, but the vast majority of Americans have not, in which case we'll surely be toast. You do know what "toast" means, right?